Short answer
AMRO cut its 2026 growth forecast for Cambodia to 3.9% in its October 2026 quarterly update, down from 4.2% in July, with inflation at 4.9%. The risks it highlights are the Thailand border, non-performing loans above 8%, energy and food prices, and a severe El Niño. Meanwhile the CDC approved about $5.92 billion of fixed-asset investment across 382 projects between January and September 2026.
The growth outlook
AMRO’s July 2026 Annual Consultation Report set a baseline of 4.2% growth in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027, assuming oil averages USD 90 to 100 a barrel. Its October 2026 quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook revised Cambodia’s 2026 figure down to 3.9%, keeping 2027 at 4.9%, and lowered 2026 inflation to 4.9% while raising the 2027 figure to 3.0%.
The October revision cites a risk that matters more for Cambodia than for most economies: a severe El Niño. AMRO notes that agriculture accounts for 16.1% of Cambodian GDP and 33.4% of employment, and that food makes up 43.3% of the consumer price index, with rice alone at 8.3%. It judges El Niño firmly established and likely to become very strong towards the end of 2026, with effects that may extend into 2027.
Investment is still arriving
The CDC approved USD 5.92 billion of fixed-asset investment across 382 projects between January and September 2026, with about 217,000 jobs expected (Xinhua, 14 October 2026). September alone brought 36 projects worth about USD 470 million and roughly 17,000 jobs, according to the CDC, split between the CDC and the Capital-Provincial Investment Sub-Committees (Agence Kampuchea Presse, 14 October 2026). Earlier in the year the same series read $5.22 billion across 309 projects for January to July and $4.7 billion across 276 projects for the first half.
Industry remains the leading driver, with infrastructure and tourism growing. The Ministry of Commerce attributes the inflows to RCEP and the bilateral free trade agreements with China, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates. In September 2026, domestic investors were the largest source of capital at 57.80%, followed by China at 28.66% and Malaysia at 6.52%.
Risks AMRO highlights
| Risk | What AMRO reports | What it means for an entrant |
|---|---|---|
| Thailand border | Cross-border activity is expected to remain suspended in 2026, constraining trade, tourism and labour mobility. Around one million Cambodian migrant workers returned from Thailand in 2025. | Check whether your supply chain or customers depend on Thai routes, and expect a tighter labour market. |
| Banking sector | The non-performing loan ratio among deposit-taking institutions was 8.3% at end-2025, up from 7.1% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2023. Retail trade accounts for the largest share of impaired loans at 21.4%, then agriculture at 12% and real estate at 9.7%. AMRO sees limited immediate spillover. | Plan your banking relationships and local financing assumptions carefully, and check the credit position of any partner you extend terms to. |
| Energy and inflation | Headline inflation is forecast at 4.9% in 2026, and the current account deficit is expected to widen to 8.5% of GDP from 3.7% in 2025. | Stress-test operating costs, logistics and power. |
| Weather and food prices | AMRO warns that a severe El Niño could disrupt agricultural production, affect rural incomes and raise household living costs, with effects possibly extending into 2027. | If you buy agricultural inputs or sell into rural markets, model a supply and price shock. |
| Real estate | Construction remained weak in 2025; AMRO calls for closer monitoring of real estate and non-bank activity. Real estate loans are about a third of bank lending. | Be selective on property-linked projects and partners. |
How to weigh this
These are macro signals, not a verdict on any one project. A manufacturer with export orders faces different risks from a consumer brand or a property developer. A market research study tests these risks against your sector before you commit capital.
Questions investors ask
Is Cambodia still attracting foreign investment in 2026?
Yes. The CDC approved about $5.92 billion of fixed-asset investment across 382 projects between January and September 2026, expected to create roughly 217,000 jobs, according to figures published on 14 October 2026.
What is the current growth forecast for Cambodia?
AMRO’s October 2026 quarterly update projects 3.9% real GDP growth in 2026, revised down from 4.2% in its July report, with 4.9% growth in 2027 and inflation of 4.9% in 2026.
Sources
- AMRO Annual Consultation Report on Cambodia 2026, Executive Summary (27 July 2026)
- AMRO, ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook — quarterly update, October 2026 (published 5 October 2026, data as at 23 September 2026)
- AMRO Annual Consultation Report on Cambodia 2026, Selected Issues: Non-performing loans (27 July 2026)
- Cambodia approves $5.92 bln in fixed-asset investments in first nine months of 2026 (Xinhua, 14 October 2026, citing the Council for the Development of Cambodia)
- 36 investment projects worth US$470 million registered in September 2026 (Agence Kampuchea Presse, 14 October 2026)
General information only, not legal, tax or investment advice. Laws, rules and figures change. Confirm the current position with licensed Cambodian professionals before acting.